The market opportunity: Lithium-Ion’s displacement of Lead-acid
For decades, Lead-acid batteries dominated the global energy storage market, supplying power for automotive starters, industrial applications and backup power systems. However, the rapid evolution of Li-ion technology has fundamentally reshaped the competitive landscape, displacing Lead-acid as the preferred solution across nearly all major applications. This transition is accelerating, with forecasts suggesting the Lithium-Ion battery market will expand from $54 billion today to upwards of $182 billion by 2030, commanding a share of 60% of the total battery market by 2030, up from 40% in 2024.( 3, 4)

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The market trajectory underscores the pace of this transformation.

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• 2018: Lead-acid still accounted for a large portion of global battery capacity, maintaining a stronghold in traditional automotive and industrial sectors. Li-ion was emerging as a dominant force in consumer electronics and early EV adoption.

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• 2024: Li-ion accounted for 40%3, 4 of the global battery market, driven by falling production costs, superior energy density, and rising demand from EVs and grid storage solutions. Meanwhile, Lead-acid’s market share continued to decline, sustained primarily by legacy applications in backup power and industrial machinery.

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• 2030: Li-ion will capture 60% of the global battery market, leaving Lead-acid with just over 20% market share.3, 4 The combination of cost reductions, superior performance and environmental regulations will further accelerate Lead-acid’s decline.

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The accelerating transition from Lead-acid to Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery technology is being driven by a confluence of technical performance, economic performance (i.e., cost) and regulatory dynamics. 

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Technically, Li-ion batteries have established a clear advantage, offering superior energy density, faster charging, and significantly longer cycle life. These attributes are increasingly critical as energy storage applications grow more demanding across sectors ranging from electric mobility to grid infrastructure. Lead-acid batteries, by contrast, are struggling to keep pace, constrained by inherent limitations in chemistry and design.

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Economically, the divergence is just as stark. Over the past decade, the cost of Li-ion batteries has dropped by nearly 90% ,(4) fuelled by rapid innovation, economies of scale, and global investment in research and development (R&D). Lead-acid, reliant on a mature and less scalable technology base, has seen only modest cost improvements. This widening cost-performance gap is fundamentally reshaping investment narratives in the energy storage space.

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Environmental and regulatory considerations further tilt the scale. Lead-acid batteries contain toxic substances such as lead and sulfuric acid, exposing manufacturers and users to increasingly stringent environmental compliance requirements and costly disposal obligations. As sustainability standards tighten globally, Lead-acid’s risk profile is deteriorating, both reputationally and financially.

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For investors, this transition presents a clear strategic opportunity: while Lead-acid investments are becoming riskier, Li-ion continues to gain momentum, making manufacturing, supply chain integration, and technology advancements in Li-ion the primary areas of focus.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s role in battery manufacturing: why investors should care
While much of the global battery supply chain is concentrated in China, the US and Europe, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is emerging as a key player in the sector. Historically, the region has been viewed primarily as a raw material supplier, but there is now growing momentum towards local beneficiation and manufacturing. This shift presents new investment opportunities, particularly in refining, precursor material production and, eventually, battery assembly.

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SSA’s growing relevance stems first from its commanding position in the global supply of critical minerals. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe and Namibia are home to some of the world’s largest reserves of Lithium, cobalt and nickel – all core components of Lithium-ion battery production. As geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism prompt supply chain diversification, these countries are becoming focal points in global sourcing strategies.

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Beyond raw materials, there is a noticeable policy shift toward localisation. Governments across the region are rolling out incentives to attract investment in local refining and processing capacity. This move seeks to reverse the longstanding pattern of exporting unprocessed ore, to capture greater economic value domestically. For investors, this creates compelling prospects in battery precursor manufacturing and related midstream infrastructure, with potential benefits in both cost and supply chain resilience.

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Simultaneously, demand for energy storage solutions within the region is on the rise. The need for off-grid electrification, industrial energy reliability, and nascent interest in electric mobility is beginning to establish a local market base. This shift presents an opportunity to support the development of decentralised, locally produced battery systems tailored to regional requirements.

Despite these advantages, challenges remain, including logistical constraints, regulatory risks, and infrastructure gaps. Investors considering SSA should take a measured approach, focusing on projects with strong government backing, clear policy support, and robust offtake agreements to mitigate risks.

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Strategic takeaways: How investors can position themselves
Investing in batteries requires a clear understanding of both near-term and long-term market shifts. While Li-ion presents a compelling immediate opportunity, emerging technologies and regional supply chain developments will shape the sector’s future.

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• Near-term opportunity (2025-2030): Li-ion remains the dominant and most scalable investment option, with well-established manufacturing and supply chains. Investors should focus on Li-ion-related manufacturing capacity, supply chain integration, and localisation strategies.

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• Mid-term positioning (2030-2035): Monitor new technologies like sodium-ion and solid-state battery developments, particularly in cost-sensitive applications. Explore strategic partnerships with battery innovators to gain early exposure to next-generation technologies.

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• Long-term strategy (beyond 2035): Assess SSA’s potential as a major battery production hub, particularly as local policies and infrastructure improve. Track high-potential battery chemistries that may challenge Li-ion at scale, depending on material innovations and regulatory shifts.

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The battery market is undergoing a fundamental transformation, with Li-ion overtaking and displacing Lead-acid technology across nearly all applications. Investors who position themselves early in Li-ion manufacturing, supply chain development, and emerging technology tracking will be best placed to capture value in this evolving market. 

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Rautenbach is Vice-President and Dempers, a Manager | Singular Advisory Africa

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1    Battery Market Outlook 2025-2030, GlobeNewsWire (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/04/3020360/28124/en/Battery-Market-Outlook-2025-2030-Insights-on-Electric-Vehicles-Energy-Storage-and-Consumer-Electronics-Growth.html)
2    Battery Market industry analysis, GrandViewResearch (https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/battery-market)
3    World Energy Outlook Special Report, International Energy Agency (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/cb39c1bf-d2b3-446d-8c35-aae6b1f3a4a0/BatteriesandSecureEnergyTransitions.pdf) 
4    Lithium-ion Battery Market Summary, GrandViewResearch (https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/Lithium-ion-battery-market)